Debunking the Hyperinflation of Peter Schiff and the Gold Bugs: A Guide for Investors |  | Author: Richard Moheban
Publisher: Mile Sands Press
Category: Book
List Price: $17.95
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Seller: Torn Jeans Books
Rating:  9 reviews
Sales Rank: 114541
Media: Paperback
Edition: 1st
Pages: 176
Number Of Items: 1
Shipping Weight (lbs): 0.6
Dimensions (in): 8.4 x 5.5 x 0.5
ISBN: 1936069229
EAN: 9781936069224
ASIN: 1936069229
Publication Date: June 1, 2009
Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days
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Product Description
The author offers an in depth look at the predictions of the gold bugs that the US dollar is headed for catastrophic collapse. While Peter Schiff and other gold bugs have described at length their visions of an apocalyptic future certain to befall the US dollar, and their investment advice to prepare, they have offered little convincing detail to support their position that massive, money-supply triggered inflation is surely coming. The author forgoes the usual macroeconomic theories, graphs and charts to examine and debunk this hyperinflation myth. He instead employs a sound conceptual understanding and common sense in exploring the viewpoints of dollar-holding global actors. The author s revealing research points to rampant inflation as being exceedingly unlikely as a result of either the economic and financial problems facing the United States or the astronomical government stimulus. Regardless of the ultimate severity of economic downturn, any US dollar decline has only the remotest chance of reaching a magnitude approaching hyperinflation. Demonstrated in detail in this book are why several key underpinnings of the gold bugs theory of mass destruction of the US economy are only myths. The author specifically debunks the notions that: (1) a largely consumer-driven economy must be tenuous; (2) a large dollar decline would turn into free fall rather than meet resistance; (3) money supply increases must eventually create corresponding price inflation; and (4) an exporting base is somehow required for American prosperity, among others. Table of Contents: Introduction
1 The Schiff View and the Gold Bugs
2 Economic Value and Economic Activity
3 The 'Consumption is Waste' Myth
4 Why a Dollar Plunge Would Self-Correct
5 Inflation by Way of the Money Supply
6 Other Inflation: Producer Costs and Creeping Inflation
7 Fiat Currency, Backing and Faith
8 Mitigating Factors in the Astronomical Government Borrowing
9 Do Borders Even Matter?
10 The Folly of Forecasts and the Great Lumping
Afterword
Richard Moheban says: "A few years from now [July 2009], Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, James Turk and other adamant 'hyperinflationists' will be scratching their heads wondering what went wrong with their certain prediction of runaway inflation. The truth is that there will be no extreme price inflation in the United States. Those pundits who insist the dollar is doomed (due to the massive creation of money by the Fed) fail to grasp the true relationship between the money supply and price levels. My book is unique in uncovering the conditions in which money creation does cause higher prices. Fortunately, those conditions do not exist in the US economy."
Publisher's note: In the customer reviews below, we believe there has been excessive bias introduced in the votes of "helpful" or "not helpful". There have been occasions that, upon screen refresh, exactly one additional vote has appeared in support of every negative and one opposing every positive review. As Peter Schiff has many strong supporters for his run for the U.S. Senate in 2010, there is reason to believe a tiny percentage of them have cast votes on reviews to simply discredit this book for political reasons. We suggest ignoring the "x of y people found this review helpful", and instead reading the reviews and comments with an open mind. The author has posted comments to some reviews, which may be helpful to you.
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| Customer Reviews:
Showing reviews 1-5 of 9
 Will the Dollar Collapse? Probably Not... December 25, 2009
Steve Miller
4 out of 5 found this review helpful
Peter Schiff predicts "surging long-term interest rates," "runaway inflation" and the ultimate "collapse of the dollar." Will it happen?
Many people proclaim to know the future of the economy. In the 1990's many financial advisers "just knew" that we had entered a "new economy" where technology stocks would continue to rise in value. They had great arguments to back up their claims. Alas, they were wrong; and those who followed their advice lost fortunes. A few years ago, many top economists argued that the housing market wasn't in a bubble and that defaults on the new, creative loans wouldn't cause severe economic problems. They were wrong.
So today many experts argue, with great confidence, that the Fed will have to print tons of paper money to pay off its debts, resulting in hyper-inflation and the collapse of the American dollar. Those who subscribe to this theory and act upon it should, they say, buy precious metals (even at inflated prices) and weight their stock holdings toward foreign securities. While this is a possible scenario, Richard Moheban argues that it's highly unlikely, thus providing a useful counterpoint to Peter Schiff's claims.
I began reading Moheban's book fully expecting to give it a quick read and find a bit of value, but in the end resell it on Amazon. Instead, I underlined, interacted with my pen and kept it for future reference.
Rather than use insider, technical economic speak, Moheban explains the basics of macroeconomics in language that is not only easy to understand, but actually entertaining. During my before-bedtime read, I felt compelled to interrupt my wife's reading to repeat Moheban's illustration of how inflation would occur in a fishing village, as opposed to something as bewilderingly complex as the US economy.
His lucid arguments and helpful analogies resulted in several "Aha!" moments for me, which I wasn't expecting, since I'm a financial writer.
Here's why I recommend Moheban's book:
1.He introduces macroeconomics to the uninitiated. To evaluate arguments concerning our economic future, you need a quick, lucid introduction. This book works.
2.He provides a helpful counter-argument to Schiff and company. To maintain objectivity in any academic endeavor, open-mindedly read intelligent opposing positions. Read Schiff. Read Moheban. Whether you agree or disagree with Moheban, you'll realize that there's another side to these important issues.
3.He helps us to understand just how tenuous economic predictions are when dealing with large, complex economies. Consistent with this, Moheban doesn't declare with certainty where the economy is headed. On the one hand, America may learn its lessons, pay down its excessive debts, and continue to lead the world's economy with its leadership in such areas as higher education and innovation. On the other hand, people may lose confidence in the dollar, cash in their stocks and bonds, pull their money out of the banks and buy guns, knives and gold.
Either scenario is possible; but our economy is so large and complex that we can't make predictions with certainty. And for those who correctly predicted the present economic mess, how can we know with any degree of certainty that they can correctly predict the next stage?
It's important to note that Moheban doesn't believe that all is well with the American economy. He's particularly concerned that if investors in short-term government bonds decide not to continually reinvest, how will the government continue to finance the deficits? Again, we can't know for certain what will happen, so get used to making decisions in the light of economic uncertainty. As Kurt Vonnegut observed in his novel, Slapstick, "History is merely a list of surprises. It can only prepare us to be surprised again."
J. Steve Miller
Author of Enjoy Your Money! How to Make It, Save It, Invest It and Give It
A Very Interesting Read August 14, 2009
Husam Abu-Haimed (California, USA)
12 out of 26 found this review helpful
I found this book insightful and interesting. It refined my intuition about several macroeconomic concepts. I strongly recommend this book for beginners as well as readers with advanced knowledge of Economics.
The author refutes the arguments of Peter Schiff and others that the 2008 financial crisis will cause a hyperinflation in the US and lead to a dramatic collapse of the US economy.
What I like about the book:
- The author gives intelligent and convincing arguments that are at the same time easy to understand even for those with little background in economics.
- The book's value goes beyond the hyperinflation debate; it will give many readers a better understanding of macroeconomics.
- The writing is quite succinct; the entire book can be read in 1 or 2 days.
- Unlike most Economists, the author is not afraid to go outside the main-stream economic thinking. An example of this is his argument that an increased monetary base does not necessarily cause inflation and if it does, the magnitude of the price increase (inflation) can be much smaller than the magnitude of the increase in the monetary base. This goes against almost every textbook on Economics. I believe that Mr. Moheban's argument is more accurate than what textbooks preach.
- At the end of page 96, the author says: "I wouldn't be surprised if corporate earnings post positive surprises... and the stock market gets a lift in 2009." This book was written in the middle of the financial crisis when nobody I know thought a recovery was possible in 2009. The most optimistic analysts were expecting the recession to end in mid 2010. It is interesting that since then, the stock market had a strong rally and most economic indicators point that the recession is over (see "The Recession is Over", News Week July 14, 2009). The author didn't label this as a "forecast" or a "prediction", but it is still worth noting.
What I disagree with:
- On page 20, in making an argument that Gold (or anything that people consider a store of value) is not intrinsically valuable, the author says (rephrasing) "if suddenly Gold becomes radioactive, nobody will come near it and therefore it loses all its value, although it is still beautiful, rare, etc." This argument does not make sense to me at all. If I am hungry, and you put my favorite dish (chicken shawarma!) in front of me, I will consider that dish very valuable. But, if you tell me that it is radioactive, I won't come near it. This does not mean that my favorite dish has no value; it does have value to me!
- In his service-based economy vs. manufacturing-based economy, the author makes the argument that as long as the economy consists of businesses that generate sustainable profits, it does not matter if those businesses were manufacturing or service businesses. The argument he makes is interesting, but it ignores some important details. For any open economy to be efficient and sustainable, it has to have some products such that:
1. These products have demand in other economies.
2. The economy has an advantage (natural resources, highly skilled and educated workforce, etc) that will make it competitive with other economies in producing these products.
I believe that a manufacturing-based economy is more likely to fit these conditions than a service-based economy. So, I think for an economy to be sustainably prosperous, it is likely to have a strong manufacturing base.
An intriguing argument, worthy of consideration October 12, 2009
Midwest Book Review (Oregon, WI USA)
5 out of 16 found this review helpful
Is the hysteria of the falling value of the dollar justified? In "Debunking the Hyperinflation of Peter Schiff and the Gold Bugs", Richard Moheban argues that the recent economic paranoia is just what it is - paranoia. Placing his arguments in the book, he encourages readers to keep their trust in the dollar and to ignore the gold buying madness. Arguing with common sense, he offers simple economics anyone can understand. "Debunking the Hyperinflation of Peter Schiff and the Gold Bugs" is an intriguing argument, worthy of consideration.
Hyperinflation: Don't believe the hype September 18, 2009
E. Wasnetsky (Wilkes Barre, PA)
8 out of 31 found this review helpful
Moheban takes a very practical view of economics. Although he does not claim to know all the answers, Moheban is quick to demonstrate no one does. This book is not filled with suggestions about investing or predictions for the future. Instead, it takes an objective approach to the cataclysmic prophecies of Peter Schiff.
Despite being a great read which is easy to follow, even fun at times, I can't imagine this book being popular with the academic community because Moheban's goal is clearly not to provide a theory to replace Hyperinflation. He clearly and objectively shows just how unlikely the PROBABILITY of the hyperinflation scenario actually is.
If you are tired of hearing wild conspiracy stories about the US dollar and want to know some truth behind how the economy works and exactly what needs to happen in order for financial Armageddon to go down, this is the book for you. I also suggest picking up a copy if you are new to economics. This book is a wealth of information on money systems and how they work.
Over all this is a great read you wont regret spending a few bucks on. Enjoy!
Moheban offers succinct arguments to the nightmarish predictions of Peter Schiff June 28, 2009
Marcia S. Freespirit
6 out of 32 found this review helpful
In Debunking the Hyperinflation of Peter Schiff and the Gold Bugs, A Guide For Investors, Moheban outlines and argues against many of Schiff's predictions . This is a very informative book and belongs on the shelf of everyone that has a true interest in the cause of the current economic debacle and likely outcomes. Everything from monetary policy and inflation to succinct descriptions of past global situations are covered.
You don't have to be a financial wizard to follow Moheban's concise and easy to follow arguments and he does a spectacular job of providing a basis for each of his points. Debunking will truly help you understand the reality of our banking system and make more informed choices about your financial future.
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Showing reviews 1-5 of 9
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